Census counts are real. The rest is a model.

Everything up to "actually single" starts from census tables for your city. After that, every step is an estimate built on published research. Each assumption is listed here so you can argue with it. Sources marked informal are company or blog analyses, not peer reviewed.

Population, age, sex, partnership status

Real counts for every metro

US Census Bureau ACS 2024 1-year (B12002) · ONS Census 2021 living arrangements · Scotland's Census 2022 · NISRA Census 2021

Living with a partner (US only)

Removed by age and sex, e.g. 24–30% of unmarried 25–34s

NCFMR FP-25-04 (CPS ASEC 2024). UK census tables already exclude cohabiters.

Seeing someone, not living together

~20% of unmarried, non-cohabiting US adults; ~10% in the UK, higher when young

Pew Research Center 2019, 2022 · Duncan 2013 · Haskey 2005

Actively looking

Men 65%, women 55% of singles under 30, falling with age

Pew Research Center 2023, 2020

PSL scale

Normal, mean 4, SD 1

PSL 5 = top 16%, 6 = top 2.3%, 7 = top 0.13%

Who women accept

Men at least 0.5 PSL above their own market value

Bruch & Newman, Science Advances 2018 (people aim ~25% above themselves) · OkCupid 2009: women rated 80% of men below medium (informal)

Who men accept

Down to 1 PSL below themselves, never pickier than PSL 3.5

OkCupid 2009: men's ratings of women are roughly normal (informal)

How sharp the cut-offs are

Soft edges of 0.5 PSL. Couples' looks end up correlated at 0.48

Feingold 1988 meta-analysis: r = .39 (.49 corrected)

Age windows

Men: 0.45 × age + 8 up to 3.5 years older. Women: 3 years younger to 8 older

OkCupid 2010 (informal). Women's range is an assumption

Age and desirability

Women's highest at 18–21, then falls. Men's rises to a plateau at 40–50

Bruch & Newman 2018 · OkCupid 2010

Competition

Your odds scale with the local single sex ratio^0.5

Census counts; the elasticity is an assumption

Breakups

60% of brand-new couples split within a year, falling to ~10% a year

Rosenfeld, Journal of Marriage and Family 2014 (HCMST)

From match to relationship

36% of meetings that are a mutual yes between single, looking people start a relationship

Calibrated so an average active seeker takes 3–5 years to one that lasts (Pew 2019, derived)

Self-rating

People overrate their own looks by ~0.5 PSL. Results are averaged over ±1 PSL

Greitemeyer 2020 · Feingold 1992: self vs. others r = .24

HypergamyMax is an estimate for entertainment, not a prediction of your life. 18+. Heterosexual matching only in this version. US data is 2024; England, Wales and Northern Ireland 2021; Scotland 2022. Nothing you enter leaves your device. We count page views and funnel steps anonymously, with no cookies. If you buy the plan, your quiz answers go with your order so your coach can start from your numbers.